Rumbles of Thunder

It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American relations today?
Steve Chan examines a range of international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes—nor does their absence ensure peace. Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen.
Chan demonstrates that claims of a "rising China" catching up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist:…